美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)12月貨幣政策聲明：每月縮減100億美元QE

鳳凰黃金訊 在結(jié)束了為期兩天的貨幣政策會(huì)議后，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)于北京時(shí)間周四(12月19日)宣布，維持聯(lián)邦基金利率區(qū)間在0.0%-0.25%不變，每月削減100億美元QE。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在明年1月開(kāi)始縮減購(gòu)債，每月將購(gòu)買(mǎi)400億美元美國(guó)國(guó)債，每月將購(gòu)買(mǎi)350億美元抵押貸款支持證券。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(FOMC)在會(huì)后發(fā)布的正式聲明中稱，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)保持既定方向，則將在未來(lái)政策會(huì)議上繼續(xù)謹(jǐn)慎縮減購(gòu)債。這表明美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在退出經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的道路上邁出了第一步。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)重申會(huì)維持接近零的低利率政策，只要失業(yè)率高于6.5%且通脹率低于2.5%。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在正式政策聲明中表示，鑒于勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)朝著就業(yè)最大化目標(biāo)不斷靠近，且就業(yè)前景出現(xiàn)改善，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策委員會(huì)決定適度降低其資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)劃的規(guī)模。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還試圖強(qiáng)調(diào)其在購(gòu)債結(jié)束后將短期利率長(zhǎng)期維持在低位的承諾。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員在政策聲明加入了新的說(shuō)法，稱只要通脹水平不是過(guò)高，那么就算失業(yè)率降至6.5%的門(mén)檻該行也不會(huì)急于加息。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)此前曾將6.5%的失業(yè)率設(shè)定為開(kāi)始考慮加息的政策門(mén)檻。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)稱，失業(yè)率降至6.5%門(mén)檻下方后將聯(lián)邦基金利率長(zhǎng)期維持在當(dāng)前水平的做法可能是適宜的，尤其是預(yù)期通脹水平繼續(xù)低于2%的長(zhǎng)期通脹目標(biāo)的情況下，這一做法更是合適。

短期利率自2008年年末以來(lái)一直維持在零水平附近。大多數(shù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員預(yù)計(jì)，今後相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間利率將維持低位。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周三發(fā)布的最新經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期顯示，17位官員中，有12位預(yù)計(jì)到2015年年底聯(lián)邦基金利率將維持在1%或更低水平，有10位預(yù)計(jì)到2016年年底聯(lián)邦基金利率在將維持在2%或更低水平。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)承認(rèn)對(duì)通脹持續(xù)低于2%目標(biāo)感到擔(dān)憂，表示正仔細(xì)監(jiān)測(cè)通脹走勢(shì)，尋找中期內(nèi)通脹水平重回目標(biāo)的證據(jù)。據(jù)美國(guó)商務(wù)部本月早些時(shí)候發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，10月份個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出價(jià)格指數(shù)(PCE)同比僅上升0.7%。這一指數(shù)是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)所青睞的通脹指標(biāo)。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員對(duì)2014年的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期基本保持不變，只是在9月份給出的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、失業(yè)率和通脹率預(yù)期基礎(chǔ)上稍作調(diào)整。聲明稱，經(jīng)濟(jì)和就業(yè)市場(chǎng)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)更加趨于平衡。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策委員會(huì)具投票權(quán)的委員中，9位委員支持縮減購(gòu)債。波士頓聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行行長(zhǎng)Eric Rosengren反對(duì)這一決定，他認(rèn)為眼下失業(yè)率仍處于高位且通脹率仍低于2%政策目標(biāo)，此時(shí)縮減購(gòu)債時(shí)機(jī)并不成熟；需要等到數(shù)據(jù)更清晰地表明經(jīng)濟(jì)增速可能持續(xù)高于其潛在增速時(shí)，才應(yīng)開(kāi)始縮減購(gòu)債。

市場(chǎng)影響

在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縮減QE規(guī)模之后，美元指數(shù)一度快速跳漲至80.30上方，但此后，在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的預(yù)估仍然不盡如人意的背景下，美元指數(shù)又一度下行至79.89的低位。市場(chǎng)的震蕩行情顯示投資者對(duì)前景仍然感到迷茫，因而此后，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席伯南克所做的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)講話將成為左右匯市進(jìn)一步走勢(shì)的又一焦點(diǎn)事件。

近期美國(guó)發(fā)布了強(qiáng)于預(yù)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。少數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為此次會(huì)議就將有所動(dòng)作，但更多人預(yù)計(jì)縮減將在2014年的頭幾個(gè)月發(fā)生。

自2008年11月以來(lái)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)宣布了6個(gè)版本的購(gòu)債計(jì)劃。對(duì)于維持超低利率的措辭也變了6個(gè)版本。過(guò)去四年里，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)兩度結(jié)束QE，希望經(jīng)濟(jì)可以企穩(wěn)，但最終只能再度啟動(dòng)新一輪購(gòu)債。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前每月購(gòu)買(mǎi)850億美元債券，以此向美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)注入流動(dòng)性。

新聞稿(原版)

Release Date: December 18, 2013

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee now anticipates, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Eric S. Rosengren, who believes that, with the unemployment rate still elevated and the inflation rate well below the target, changes in the purchase program are premature until incoming data more clearly indicate that economic growth is likely to be sustained above its potential rate.

Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

2013 Monetary Policy Releases