新華社刊文：人民幣疲軟源于美國(guó)加息預(yù)期

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)如預(yù)期進(jìn)行近十年來的首次加息，中國(guó)匯市和債市周四波瀾不驚。然而新一輪美國(guó)升息周期的開啟給人民幣匯率和火爆的債券市場(chǎng)都帶來壓力。

周四人民幣中間價(jià)連續(xù)第九天調(diào)降，觸及近四年半以來最低水平。人民幣即期開盤跳空低開，兌美元連續(xù)第十天下跌，創(chuàng)下2007年4月以來最長(zhǎng)記錄，收?qǐng)?bào)6.4837；離岸人民幣則逆轉(zhuǎn)此前漲勢(shì)而走跌，目前報(bào)6.5536。中國(guó)債市二級(jí)市場(chǎng)上，長(zhǎng)端債券收益率出現(xiàn)了小幅下行。

新華社在評(píng)論文章中寫道，過去兩周人民幣貶值只是由預(yù)期美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息而引發(fā)的市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)象。鑒于外匯儲(chǔ)備充足，經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁，中國(guó)有大量資源可用于維持金融穩(wěn)定。

文章稱，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面強(qiáng)勁將阻止人民幣下跌過猛，部分市場(chǎng)人士擔(dān)憂美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將造成資本流出新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體，這是不正確的。中國(guó)將呈現(xiàn)各種商業(yè)良機(jī)。

注：離岸人民幣月至今下跌2.2%。

美國(guó)結(jié)束長(zhǎng)期超低利率時(shí)代，適逢中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速降至25年來最弱時(shí)期。中國(guó)央行連續(xù)降準(zhǔn)、降息，試圖放寬流動(dòng)性，刺激增長(zhǎng)。包括中信證券固收研究首席分析師明明在內(nèi)的數(shù)位市場(chǎng)人士表示，美國(guó)加息后人民幣貶值壓力及資本外流壓力將持續(xù)存在，將削弱中國(guó)貨幣政策的寬松效果。

“在資本流出、外匯貶值的狀況下，年底的流動(dòng)性仍然將或有一定的波動(dòng)，” 中信證券固收研究首席分析師明明在點(diǎn)評(píng)中稱。他認(rèn)為，中國(guó)央行有可能再次降低存款準(zhǔn)備金，但帶來的流動(dòng)性不足以讓中國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率停留在3%以下。

新華社原文

Commentary: China can well cope with U.S. rate hike

Dec. 17, 2015 (Xinhua) -- The recent U.S. rate rise has caused worry about its impact on developing countries. With growing strength, China could cope with it with a relatively easy mind.

With abundant forex reserves and a strong economy, China has lots of resources to use to maintain financial stability.

The underlying strength of the Chinese economy will stop the yuan from falling too far. The depreciation of the last two weeks was only a market phenomenon spawned by expectations of the rate hike.

Some worry that a recovery in the U.S. will suck money out of emerging economies. This is not true.

Cross-border money seeks higher yields, either higher interest rates from financial instruments or bigger returns from investment in the real economy. Narrowing the interest rate gap will not blemish the appeal of emerging economies because there are so many more opportunities to make money there these days.

China, for instance, has transformed itself from a factory of cheap plastic gimcrack to a maker of high-speed trains, satellites and supercomputers.

With innovation and consumption propelling the country forward, a smorgasbord of new opportunities to make money will present itself.

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